Clinton, McCain and Energizing Whose Base

the hill newspaper reported last week that:

Veteran Republican fundraisers and strategists hope that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) can revive their party's apathetic base even as her 2008 presidential campaign has reached its final hours.

Republican insiders say that if presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) selects Clinton as his running mate, it would energize the Republican base and fundraising. They say presumptive GOP nominee Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) would not have to work as hard to appease conservative voters if Clinton landed on the ticket.

this isn't really new(s).  we've known for years what the hill story says:

Clinton makes for easy fundraising because conservative donors don't need to hear an argument for why they should oppose her.

"For conservatives, the hair on the back of their necks stands up and they hear fingernails streaking down the blackboard," said Morgan. "With Obama, you have to spend a lot of time explaining who he is and why he's bad. With Hillary Rodham Clinton on the ticket, she'd be a major focal point -- you can just sit back."

how desperately mccain needs for clinton to be on the obama ticket was underscored by this cqpolitics story:

According to a Congressional Quarterly analysis, only about 5,000 of the 62,800 donors who gave the maximum contribution of $2,000 to Bush -- roughly 8 percent -- had given to McCain as of April 30.

take a moment to reflect on that astonishing fact.  only 8% of bush's maximum contributors have given mccain something.  we're not talking the maximum here.  we're talking about 92% of bush's major contributors taking a pass on contributing anything to mccain.

what's more, bush contributors (some of them democrats anyway), have crossed over to contribute to the democratic candidates:

The CQ analysis found that 827 of Bush's major supporters have contributed almost $1.7 million to Obama so far and 603 have donated more than $1.5 million to Clinton. At least 46 of Bush's 2004 donors also have given big to both Democrats -- but were not listed as donors to McCain's campaign.

McCain has failed to spur enthusiasm among many conservative donors and activists, and Democrats have out-raised him dramatically:

"Putting her on the ticket would be the one thing to wake those donors up from their current doldrums.

"It would really be a godsend to McCain and the Republican National Committee [RNC]," said [Cesar] Conda, who will work to help McCain.

it's not always easy to let sleeping dogs lie.  "You probably have no concept of the anger of conservatives at the Republican Party," conservative direct mail pioneer richard viguerie told the hill. "You can cut it with a knife."  that should be an advantage for barack obama and democrats in the fall.  unless barack is forced to choose hillary:

Dan Morgan, a veteran GOP fundraiser who specializes in raising money through the mail, said Clinton makes life easy for Republican moneymen because many conservatives dislike her intensely.

He said aside from political junkies who listen regularly to conservative talk radio, many conservatives have not formed a strong opinion of Obama.

putting hillary on the ticket would allow republicans to sidestep the need to define barack in horrific terms because they'd have their boogey-(wo)man. it would save them money, too -- instead of having to spend money on commercials that define barack or to mobilize their base, they could focus on the attack.  that's what john mccain and his people really want to do, re-run the 2004 election.  

it doesn't have to be that way.  the democratic ticket should be the ticket that is the strongest ticket possible -- which includes not giving demoralized republicans reason to become engaged in this year's general election.  some people are willing to overlook hillary's weaknesses in this area because of her strong appeal to the democratic base.  but it is a tradeoff, one that isn't necessary for barack to make.  barack is already beating john mccain in head to head matchups, both in statewide polls for the purposes of looking at the electoral college and in national polls.

Obama has consistently held a lead of five to seven percentage points each night since it was reported that Hillary Clinton intended to suspend her campaign. These represent Obama's strongest showing versus McCain to date in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of registered voters' presidential election preferences.

choosing a different vice-presidential nominee forces mccain to work harder to shore up his partisan base -- the same problem john kerry had until late october in 2004.  it forces him to appeal more to the extreme right and less to the center.  and it makes him spend money that he doesn't have -- and can't afford to spend -- on doing so.  why shouldn't we force mccain to waste his precious time and money trying to excite his base?

the fact is, democrats have a bigger base this year, and we can afford to take our time rallying the troops.  john mccain can't.  

no doubt, some people will be hurt by this straight-forward political calculation that democrats will run best if hillary is not on the democratic ticket.  we have to accept the reality that this fact alienates some of hillary's most ardent supporters.  but it might be good for hillary and her supporters to ponder what they can do that will strengthen the democratic ticket in this election cycle instead of trying to punish democrats for having chosen a different nominee.  that's a legacy for which we could all be proud of hillary...



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Re: Clinton, McCain and Energizing Who's Base (none / 0)

Bullshit, the GOP is bluffing; they don't want any part of Hillary.  Foxnews is completely shitting on the idea because they know the ticket would be quite powerful.

She adds around three points to Obama's numbers; every percentage point matters.


by Blazers Edge on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 11:47:28 AM EST

Re: Clinton, McCain and Energizing Who's Base (none / 0)

She improves the crosstabs on Democrats, but loses significantly on independents and Republicans.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 11:50:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton, McCain and Energizing Who's Base (none / 0)

Doesn't matter as long as she's a net plus and adds to his numbers.  The net gain from Democrats is greater than the loss of independents and Republicans.


by Blazers Edge on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 11:52:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton, McCain and Energizing Who's Base (none / 0)

Hmm, well, not necessarily. For instance, Obama had a seven-point shift in Wisconsin in his favor and is now leading McCain. But this was done entirely with independents- he even lost a couple points in the Democratic column. But it still made it a seven-point shift.

I don't think Clinton could bring him West Virginia, Kentucky, or Arkansas, and if he loses support in places like Wisconsin, Virginia, or the mountain west, even if it shores up the Democrats. We might pull in Florida, instead, but there's no clear delineation on if it'd be a benefit or not.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 11:57:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

you might think that... (none / 0)

but it's not just numbers.  intensity matters.  we have seen from this primary that hillary divides the left and unites the right.  why do you think so many republicans lined up to run against her?  they all saw the same thing: hillary is a powerful motivator for the right.

you don't have to believe that.  conservatives do (for the most part).  personally, i like the right demoralized from the bush years.  i don't want to give them any reason to get involved in this election cycle.  not everyone agrees...


"Anyone who voted for me or caucused for me has so much more in common with Senator Obama than Senator McCain." -- Hillary Clinton
by bored now on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 11:59:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton, McCain and Energizing Who's Base (none / 0)

Old and busted.

New hotness.


Hooray for John McCain!
by ragekage on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 11:49:54 AM EST


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